Kilian exogenous oil supply shocks efqmxes

Kilian exogenous oil supply shocks

14.10.2020

Strange33500

20 Sep 2018 This paper investigates the link between oil price uncertainty shocks and Therefore, SVAR analysis reveals the significant role of exogenous oil prices on the to oil price shocks regardless of the phase of the business cycle (Kilian, of oil importing countries on both the demand and supply side (Khan stimulated a new line of research in the oil-GDP debate. While earlier work regarded oil price shocks to be exogenous and the result of supply distractions, Kilian The world oil price contains both endogenous and exogenous components that capture feedback from US economic activity and US oil production to world oil. tradition of evaluating the effects of exogenous oil price changes (Hamilton, 2003 , and. Kilian, 2008, among others), and to disentangle oil supply shocks, viewed oil-price changes as exogenous to the U.S. economy.3 That view, by direct supply shocks, whereas Kilian downplays these shocks and instead Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy? Lutz Kilian University of Michigan CEPR January 1, 2006 Abstract: Since the oil crises of the 1970s there has been strong interest in the question of how oil production EXOGENOUS OIL SUPPLY SHOCKS 217 that episode. Exogenous oil supply disruptions explain only a small fraction of the oil price increases during the 1973/ 74, 1990/91, and 2002/03 episodes. This finding is sugges-tive of an important role for other explanatory variables such as shifts in the demand for oil or shifts in the uncer-

tradition of evaluating the effects of exogenous oil price changes (Hamilton, 2003 , and. Kilian, 2008, among others), and to disentangle oil supply shocks,

Exogenous oil supply shocks cause a sharp drop of U.S. real GDP growth after five quarters rather than an immediate and sustained reduction in economic growth and a spike in CPI inflation after three quarters. Overall, exogenous oil supply shocks made remarkably little difference for the evolution of the U.S. Finally, the results of this paper put into perspective the importance of exogenous oil production shortfalls in the Middle East. It is shown that exogenous oil supply shocks made remarkably little difference overall for the evolution of U.S. real GDP growth and CPI inflation since the 1970s, although they did matter for some historical episodes. An exogenous oil supply disruption typically causes a temporary reduction in real GDP growth that is concentrated in the second year after the shock. (2) Inflation responses are more varied. The median CPI inflation response peaks after three to four quarters. Finally, the results of this paper put into perspective the importance of exogenous oil production shortfalls in the Middle East. It is shown that exogenous oil supply shocks made remarkably little difference overall for the evolution of U.S. real GDP growth and CPI inflation since the 1970s, although they did matter for some historical episodes.

oil supply shocks investigated in a series of papers by Kilian (2008b, 2009), Hamilton test for whether oil prices can be treated as weakly exogenous in the

13 Dec 2010 A COMPARISON OF THE EFFECTS OF EXOGENOUS OIL SUPPLY SHOCKS ON OUTPUT AND INFLATION IN THE G7 COUNTRIES.

13 Jun 2008 supply shocks driven by exogenous political events in the Middle East, building on recent work in Kilian (2008a,b), and other crude oil supply

An exogenous oil supply disruption typically causes a temporary reduction in real GDP growth that is concentrated in the second year after the shock. Inflation responses are more varied. The median CPI inflation response peaks after three to four quarters. Exogenous oil supply disruptions need not generate sustained inflation or stagflation. The paper introduces a new measure that jointly identifies and disentangles the oil supply shocks of crude oil into exogenous and endogenous, by quantifying the positive and negative shocks to oil production caused by events outside the oil market (exogenous) or as a consequence of the normal functioning of the oil market (endogenous).

Kilian (2008c, 2009b) demonstrates that oil supply disruptions have had very limited effects historically on the real price of oil, not only since the mid 1980s, but even in the 1970s and early 1980s. There also is growing interest in the role of uncertainty (and more generally of shifts in expectations)

Kilian (2008c, 2009b) demonstrates that oil supply disruptions have had very limited effects historically on the real price of oil, not only since the mid 1980s, but even in the 1970s and early 1980s. There also is growing interest in the role of uncertainty (and more generally of shifts in expectations) Exogenous oil supply shocks cause a sharp drop of U.S. real GDP growth after five quarters rather than an immediate and sustained reduction in economic growth and a spike in CPI inflation after three quarters. Overall, exogenous oil supply shocks made remarkably little difference for the evolution of the U.S. Finally, the results of this paper put into perspective the importance of exogenous oil production shortfalls in the Middle East. It is shown that exogenous oil supply shocks made remarkably little difference overall for the evolution of U.S. real GDP growth and CPI inflation since the 1970s, although they did matter for some historical episodes. An exogenous oil supply disruption typically causes a temporary reduction in real GDP growth that is concentrated in the second year after the shock. (2) Inflation responses are more varied. The median CPI inflation response peaks after three to four quarters. Finally, the results of this paper put into perspective the importance of exogenous oil production shortfalls in the Middle East. It is shown that exogenous oil supply shocks made remarkably little difference overall for the evolution of U.S. real GDP growth and CPI inflation since the 1970s, although they did matter for some historical episodes.